2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is the usual suspects that are destined to do the most damage in Las Vegas this week, as the members of the Mountain West Conference descend on the Thomas & Mack Center for the 11th annual conference tournament.

All season long there was a tug-of-war going on between New Mexico and BYU and in the end the Lobos (28-3, 14-2) won out and captured the regular-season title and the top seed in this event, while the Cougars (28-4, 13-3) continued to fight hard and placed second in the standings. Both UNLV and San Diego State had their moments, but the inconsistency from game-to-game meant that investing too much faith in either program would certainly break one's heart. As a result, each team finished at 11-5 in conference, with the tie-breaker going to the host team in this event and the Aztecs being the fourth seed.

Any one of the four aforementioned programs have a strong chance of raising the trophy and earning the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and by the same token, the other five teams in the MWC are long shots to get beyond the quarterfinal round on Thursday.

Actually, the tourney begins on Wednesday when ninth-seeded Air Force and eighth-seeded Wyoming clash in the desert. The Falcons (9-20, 1-15) started off the season well enough with four wins in five games, but even the academy couldn't convince itself that victories over Western State, Dickinson State, Charleston Southern and NC Central were worthy statements to say that the team had finally arrived. In fact, the Falcons won just five games from then on and just one in conference, against Wyoming at home as it were. Air Force, one of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation with a mere 56.7 ppg, again had a strong defense as it allowed just 63.5 ppg, but there were just too many times when Air Force was overwhelmed and outplayed. Grant Parker finished the season scoring 12.9 ppg, but because he did not participate in 75 percent of the squad's games he failed to earn a spot in the league's top-20 in scoring.

As for the Cowboys (10-20, 3-13), losing Afam Muojeke to injury prevented them from being competitive down the stretch. In fact, the team won just two games after he went down, and one of those was against Air Force last week at home. Wyoming is listed as the fourth-highest scoring team in the league with 71.7 ppg, but that is rather misleading given that the team cranked out a combined 243 points in just two games against Peru State and Adams State. Take away those two romps and the Pokes were less than ordinary, especially with the defense giving up a league-high 75 ppg in 2009-10. With A.J. Davis now out of action, that takes another 10.0 ppg off the books and leaves the Cowboys wondering what happened to their season.

Unfortunately, either Air Force or Wyoming is going to advance on Wednesday night, and when it does it will see nationally-ranked New Mexico waiting in the wings. As hyped as the Lobos are these days the Falcons and Cowboys, two teams that have still not won an MWC Tournament title, have to be somewhat confident seeing as how both programs took UNM to the brink at some point this season before being turned away. Because of some of those isolated struggles, the Lobos are third in the conference in scoring margin at plus-10.1 ppg, trailing both BYU and UNLV. What UNM does have going in its favor is senior leadership in Roman Martinez (14.1 ppg), and surprising input from newcomer Darington Hobson (15.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 143 assists). Because of Martinez and Hobson, the Lobos recently ranked as high as 33rd in the country with more than eight three-pointers per game. Add Dairese Gary (12.4 ppg) and Phillip McDonald (10.9 ppg) to the list of contributors and any one of them have the potential to take over a game and lead the Lobos to the next level.

Assuming New Mexico will make it out of the quarterfinals, waiting for the Lobos will be either fourth-seeded San Diego State or fifth-seeded Colorado State in the semis. The Aztecs (22-8, 11-5) lost both of their meetings against UNM during the regular season, but they too played a close game versus the Lobos later in the campaign and took them to overtime before bowing by a basket. Head coach Steve Fisher and his squad has a lot to prove after the team lost by two points in the title game last season to Utah and it begins by letting the rest of the league know that they will struggle to score points against the top defense in the MWC, with SDSU allowing just 61.8 ppg. Kawhi Leonard was a great addition to the Aztecs lineup this season, averaging 12.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per outing, although his mere 19.7 percent shooting from three-point range took some of the luster off his efforts. Malcolm Thomas (11.1 ppg, 7.9 rpg) was another key ingredient to the squad's success. However, the most frustrating aspect of the Aztecs is that they leave far too many points on the floor with a miserable 60.8 percent shooting at the free- throw line.

The Rams (16-14, 7-9) beat the teams that they should have in the conference, but at the same time had some truly awful efforts against the top-tier schools mixed in as well. CSU lost to the Aztecs by double digits in both regular- season meetings, so that in itself doesn't bode well for this group. Were it not for a 76-67 win over Utah on Saturday, Colorado State would be heading into the postseason with a lengthy losing streak. The offense for the Rams was not one to light up the scoreboard, producing just 66.3 ppg to rank second-to- last in the MWC ahead of only Air Force. Andy Ogide sits atop the scoring list for the team with his 11.9 ppg, having shot 54.2 percent from the field. He is also first on the glass with 6.6 rpg as well, but those numbers don't begin to make up for the fact that he delivered just 27 assists in 30 games. Dorian Green and Travis Franklin were responsible for 11.7 and 10.6 ppg, respectively, but even though the former accounted for a team-best 71 assists, there's no getting past his mere 35.0 percent shooting from the field.

Because the Lobos are the talk of the conference, the one team that might be able to fly under the radar somewhat is second-seeded BYU which has one of the top scoring threats in the nation in Jimmer Fredette. The Cougars, a unit with one of the largest scoring margins in all of college basketball this season at plus- 18.7 ppg, showed great balance on both offense and defense, which is why seventh-seeded TCU is in for a rude awakening in the desert this week.

BYU, which crushed the Horned Frogs (13-18, 5-11) in the regular-season finale on Saturday with a 107-77 rout in Fort Worth, was among the top scoring teams in the nation this season with 83.1 ppg and much of the credit goes to Fredette and his 20.6 ppg. A three-point specialist with his 47.2 percent accuracy out on the perimeter, Fredette showed great range and the ability to slash through defenses to get to the rim and force contact, so much so that he shot 171-of-194 at the free-throw line. When the shot wasn't there for Fredette he was more than happy to give up the ball and let a teammate share the spotlight, which is why he was able to tally a team-best 141 assists. Jackson Emery (12.6 ppg) and Tyler Haws (11.4 ppg) were also big contributors from the starting lineup, but the one player that many forget about is Jonathan Tavernari because he seemingly lost his touch in the early part of the season and then ended up coming off the bench. Tavernari (10.5 ppg) doesn't get much of the glory anymore, but he is no less important to this program.

TCU, just 1-4 in this tournament since joining the Mountain West a few years back, may have shown its true colors back on November 24th when it needed three overtime periods just to get past Texas State at home. Of the five wins the Frogs logged in conference play, four came against Air Force and Wyoming, just a few more reasons why BYU should feel comfortable in the quarterfinals. Ronnie Moss, one of the nation's leaders in assists with 185 over the course of 31 games, is also the leading scorer for the group with his 14.6 ppg. However, as crucial as Moss is to the offense, his 39.7 percent shooting from the field doesn't scare too many opponents. Imports Zvonko Buljan and Edvinas Ruzgas kick in another 12.4 and 10.7 ppg, respectively, the former also standing in to clear 8.6 rpg. Because he plays so well in the paint, one would think that Buljan would have been instructed to refrain from letting loose from three-point range where he is just 26.9 percent accurate. Because of size restrictions placed on Air Force players its understood that the Falcons will struggle on the glass and when it comes to blocked shots, but TCU was only fractions ahead of the academy in the latter category with just two rejections per game.

Always a favorite to come out on top in this tourney, especially since the games are played on their home floor, the third-seeded UNLV Runnin' Rebels (23-7, 11-5) will be gunning for their fourth crown and the third in the last four years when they begin with a quarterfinals meeting against sixth-seeded Utah, the defending tournament champion. UNLV finished the regular season with the second-best scoring margin in the league with a plus-10.5 ppg, but the moment it looked like the Rebels were about to assert themselves in the conference they ended up dropping the ball. Following their crushing win over BYU the first week of February, the team turned around and promptly dropped three straight, so you have to wonder which version is going to show up for this tourney. Leading scorer Tre'Von Willis had his share of strong games for the group, averaged 20.3 ppg in MWC outings and was also second on the team overall with 103 assists, but all of that still didn't disguise the fact that he shot only 29.8 percent behind the three-point line. Chace Stanback (12.3 ppg) came on strong late in the campaign, but at the same time Oscar Bellfield (9.3 ppg) began to slow down.

A far cry from last year's team that ended up winning this tournament for the second time, the Utes (14-16, 7-9) were the worst in the conference when it came to turnover margin this season and that's just one of the reasons why Utah finished in the middle of the pack and was rather average all-around. Ranked seventh in the league in scoring, Carlon Brown (12.6 ppg) was the one who often appeared at the top of the scoring chart for the program, but what does it say about a team when the top scorer is someone who comes off the bench. Despite his freshman status, Marshall Henderson was also a factor on offense for the Utes with his 12.0 ppg, although his mere 37.5 percent shooting from the field left a lot to be desired. Putting up a tough defense was the one thing that kept the Utes in contention in so many outings, limiting teams to just 40.9 percent shooting from the field and 30.1 percent behind the three-point line, but the squad was desperate to still find offense of its own in order to succeed at a higher level.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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