Inside the NBA Draft: CBA is league's biggest problem

Basketball Betting Lines

06/25/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Television productions tend to embellish on a fairly regular basis so I must confess snickering a little bit when I overheard the Worldwide Leader call the 2010 NBA Draft historic from my perch above its set at Madison Square Garden.

Of course, I suppose five Kentucky players being selected in the first round of the draft, and the fact that the first senior wasn't taken until No. 23, the longest wait ever for four-year players, did have some scurrying for the record books.

Heck, even the venue itself gets the juices flowing. When you reach the escalator at Penn Station and slowly make the climb up to the Garden, you can't help thinking about Willis Reed limping onto the floor, Bernard King dropping 60, Spike Lee jawing with Reggie Miller or in my case Ivan Koloff pinning Bruno Sammartino.

That said, this draft was all about history to me for a different reason. It was the first time a number of teams flat out ignored the young talent available in order to clear salary cap space for the most high-profile free agent class ever, featuring the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire and Joe Johnson.

The Chicago Bulls gave away an excellent player, Kirk Hinrich, for nothing. The hometown Knicks, perhaps spooked by Chicago's move, refused to trade up into the first round despite liking a number of players, and the Miami Heat virtually cleared the decks, making room for two high-profile free agents to join Wade in South Beach.

It was almost surreal watching NBA teams hang their entire futures on the recruiting process. It was like the stench of AAU basketball had invaded MSG and took over The Association.

It's been a problem for years but the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and its players is now officially ruining the game for the fans. When salary cap slots become more meaningful than the human beings sporting your favorite team's colors -- something is wrong.

For years I've decried the conventional wisdom that says the salary cap makes it impossible to make significant personnel moves in the NBA. I used to think that was the philosophy of the weak, the GM's that have no imagination or foresight. Winners tend to be winners for a reason I always thought.

I've also always prided myself on being open-minded and when everyone takes the opposite view of your own -- it's time to revisit your thesis.

You can bet all 30 teams would like to be joining the "King James" sweepstakes that are set to kick off in a week but only the ones with the foresight to clean out the closest are in.

Much like our government, the NBA is rewarding bad behavior.

One of my pet peeves in the real world is the estate or death tax. If you make a lot of money in your life and do the right thing by saving and providing for your kids, the government will swoop in after you pass and take 50 percent of the money you were already taxed on when you were living, essentially stealing from your family. If you are a horrible person, go to Vegas and blow that same money on craps, booze and blow, the government will never see a dime.

That is the very definition of rewarding bad behavior.

In the NBA, teams routinely tank seasons or jettison competent pieces to the puzzle, and are given high draft picks or the siren's song that is cap relief.

Perhaps it's pie-in-the-sky stuff but wouldn't be nice to see a league where everyone is trying to compete at a high level?

2010 NBA DRAFT PICK-BY-PICK ANALYSIS:

1. - Washington Wizards - John Wall (Kentucky), Point Guard (6-3, 195) - Wall, the first ever No.1 overall pick out of Kentucky, is the one can't miss prospect in the draft. He combines rare speed with the ball, along with the size and athleticism to be an elite player very early in his career. He needs to improve his jumper but could be a quicker version of Derrick Rose.

2. - Philadelphia 76ers - Evan Turner (Ohio State), Combo Guard (6-7, 215) - The Sixers stayed put and took the most NBA-ready player in the draft, a virtually mistake-proof pick in Turner, the college player of the year. Turner has a tremendous feel for the game and is an extremely efficient offensive player in the mold of Portland's Brandon Roy. His mid-range jumper is something rarely seen these days and he can handle the ball with either hand. Turner should team with Jrue Holiday to give the Sixers a top-tier backcourt for the next decade or so.

3. - New Jersey Nets - Derrick Favors (Georgia Tech), Power Forward (6-9, 245) - The Nets had the real decision in the draft and went with Favors, the logical pick. DeMarcus Cousins may have the bigger upside but New Jersey already has an All-Star type center in Brook Lopez so they went with Favors, a prototypical four in the mold of Kenyon Martin.

4. - Minnesota Timberwolves - Wesley Johnson (Syracuse), Small Forward (6-7, 205) - Despite his annoying bloviating and his comically inept criticism of Favors, Wolves basketball chief David Kahn got his man in Johnson, a silky- smooth small forward with a big wingspan and a nice jumper.

5. - Sacramento Kings - DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Center (6-11, 280) - Last year Sacramento fell from No. 1 to four in the lottery and lucked out by snaring Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans, a player that is now the cornerstone of the franchise. The Kings reportedly asked Evans his opinion on who the pick should be this season and Tyreke wasn't shy about professing his desire to play with Cousins, a talented big with a questionable work ethic. Cousins' eventual upside will likely be determined by his waistband.

6. - Golden State Warriors - Ekpe Udoh (Baylor), Power Forward (6-10, 235) - Udoh shot up the board in the final days leading up to the draft but strikes me as a reach by a troubled franchise, lacking leadership. Of course, any player with a defensive mindset is welcome in Oakland. Udoh has the wingspan of a 7-foot-4 player and should develop into an elite shot-blocker early in his career as well as an exceptional offensive rebounder.

7. - Detroit Pistons - Greg Monroe (Georgetown), Power Forward/Center (6-10, 245) - Since Ben Wallace and Kwame Brown were the big men in the Motor City last year, Detroit needed a center and choice the more-skilled Monroe over a traditional pivot like Cole Aldrich. Monroe, a lefty with the skills of a much smaller player, must prove he has the toughness to excel on the boards and at the defensive end.

8. - Los Angeles Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu (Wake Forest), Combo Forward (6-8, 220) - Since the Clippers have All-Star Chris Kaman in the pivot and will have Blake Griffin coming back next year at the four, they really wanted a small forward to round out the front line and lucked out when Aminu, a player with elite physical tools and a nice upside, fell.

9. - Utah Jazz - Gordon Hayward (Butler), Small Forward (6-8, 210) - Utah could have used a big man to replace Carlos Boozer but he Jazz get a replacement for Kyle Korver by taking Hayward, a weak-side shooter with a high basketball IQ that can take advantage of double-teams by sticking the three.

10. - Indiana Pacers - Paul George (Fresno State), Combo Forward (6-8, 210) - Weirdest pick in the draft. Was sure there was a trade coming when I saw the Pacers took George, a rangy guy that can handle the ball very well for a wing player and run the floor. Indiana needs a point guard badly and were reportedly shopping this pick with the intent of landing Jonny Flynn, Ty Lawson or Nick Collison. Meanwhile, George projects at the same position as the Pacers best player -- Danny Granger.

11. - New Orleans Hornets - Cole Aldrich (Kansas), Center (6-11, 250) - The Hornets took Aldrich in order to trade him and Morris Peterson for picks 21 and 26, which ended up being Iowa State power forward Craig Brackins and Washington small forward Quincy Pondexter. Aldrich is a legitimate center with top-tier rebounding and defensive skills that will help the Thunder compete with the Lakers out West.

12. - Memphis Grizzlies - Xavier Henry (Kansas), Shooting Guard (6-6, 220) - Henry, the Kansas freshman, is a physical specimen that is tailor-made for the NBA game and gives the Grizzlies some insurance for Rudy Gay. If Gay stays on Beale Street, Henry will provide a nice punch off the bench, while he could develop into a starter if Gay departs.

13. - Toronto Raptors - Ed Davis (North Carolina), Power Forward (6-9, 225) - The Raptors figure to lose Chris Bosh in the offseason so they needed a big and Davis fits the bill. He's raw but athletic. A little added strength and attention to the mid-range game wouldn't be a bag thing for Davis.

14. - Houston Rockets - Patrick Patterson (Kentucky), Combo Forward (6-8, 235) - Patterson seems like a good choice here. The Kentucky junior has the ability to move between the three and four, meaning he can play with Yao Ming and Luis Scola and provide some insurance up front in case the injury bug continues to haunt the Rockets.

15. - Milwaukee Bucks - Larry Sanders (VCU), Power Forward (6-10, 235) - I had heard Sanders got a guarantee from the Bucks that he would be selected here if available. The Bucks added an impressive quarterback last year in Brandon Jennings, and Sanders is the type of athlete that will fit right into what the team is trying to accomplish. Scott Skiles seems to be enamored with his length and ability to help on the defensive end and the boards.

16. - Minnesota Timberwolves - Luke Babbitt (Nevada), Combo Forward (6-8, 220) - In one of the more questionable decisions ever made in the NBA, the Blazers fired GM Kevin Pritchard but told him he would be in charge of the draft on his last day. Pritchard made a deal here as Minnesota takes Babbitt and trades him, along with Ryan Gomes, for Martell Webster. Babbitt, the WAC Player of the Year, is a great athlete but I'm not sure he fits with the Blazers.

17. - Chicago Bulls - Kevin Seraphin (France), Center/Power Forward (6-10, 255) - Seraphin was taken for the Wizards in the Hinrich deal that won't be announced until July 8. The only European player taken in the first round, Seraphin is very raw and may be stashed overseas by Washington for a year or two, although he does have a very reasonable buyout.

18. - Oklahoma City Thunder - Eric Bledsoe (Kentucky), Combo Guard (6-0, 195) - The Thunder got this pick from Miami on Wednesday and worked a deal with the Clippers by trading Bledsoe for a future No. 1. A shrewd deal by Sam Presti considering how often the Clips are in the lottery. Bledsoe, while not quite ready, can play both guard positions and has a solid upside. He should start as Baron Davis' caddy and eventually become his heir apparent.

19. - Boston Celtics - Avery Bradley (Texas), Shooting Guard (6-2, 175) - Danny Ainge made good on picking Bradley. Since Ray Allen may move on in the offseason, the C's felt it was prudent to take a flyer on Bradley, an undersized freshman that is a pure shooter and scorer.

20. - San Antonio Spurs - James Anderson (Oklahoma State), Shooting Guard (6-6, 195) - Anderson is slight but tough and could be the best pure shooter in this year's draft. The tread is wearing thin on both Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. George Hill could be a difference-maker down the line but the Spurs could use another active body in the backcourt and Anderson is a nice value pick.

21. - Oklahoma City Thunder - Craig Brackins (Iowa State), Power Forward (6-10, 230) - Brackins will head to New Orleans in the Aldrich deal and provide a big body to compliment David West.

22. - Portland Trail Blazers - Elliott Williams (Memphis), Shooting Guard (6-4, 180) - Chad Buchanan, the Blazers' director of college scouting, recently said there would likely be "two really solid catch-and-shoot guys" that could help the team at 22 and Williams, a versatile southpaw guard with upper-echelon athleticism, was obviously a player he was targeting.

23. - Minnesota Timberwolves - Trevor Booker (Clemson), Power Forward (6-7, 240) - The first senior taken was Booker, a guy I had rated as a second rounder. The Wolves quickly traded the rights to Booker and the 56th pick, Hamady N'diaye, for the 30th pick, Lazar Hayward, and the 35th pick, Nemanja Bjelica. Booker is undersized for the four spot and not athletic enough to play the three.

24. - Atlanta Hawks - Damion James (Texas), Small Forward (6-7, 230) - The Hawks take another senior in James but move him to New Jersey for Jordan Crawford, the 27th pick, and Tibor Pliess. James excels in transition and is an exceptional rebounder and defender for his size.

25. - Memphis Grizzlies - Dominique Jones (South Florida), Shooting Guard (6-4, 215) - The Grizzlies take Jones. a powerfully-built combo guard with a nice offensive game, and sell him to Dallas for cash. Jones may be the best finisher in the draft outside of Wall and the Mavs need players that can excel at the rim.

26. - Oklahoma City Thunder - Quincy Pondexter (Washington), Small Forward (6-7, 220) - The slight Pondexter also moves to the Big Easy in the Aldrich trade. A heady offensive player, Pondexter should excel playing with Chris Paul.

27. - New Jersey Nets - Jordan Crawford (Xavier), Shooting Guard (6-4, 195) - Crawford moves to Atlanta, along with Tibor Pliess, for Damion James. With Joe Johnson likely moving on, this is the player the Hawks wanted although expecting Crawford to replace an All-Star is unrealistic.

28. - Memphis Grizzlies - Greivis Vasquez (Maryland), Combo Guard (6-5, 195) - Nice energy player that lacks great speed and top-tier athleticism. That said, Vasquez is a nice player to have coming off your bench.

29. - Orlando Magic - Daniel Orton (Kentucky), Power Forward (6-10, 255) - Most thought Orton was a lottery pick and he nearly slid all the way out of the first round due to concerns over his work ethic. He still has a significant upside, however, with impressive length, although his offensive game needs a lot of work despite a very soft touch that is rare among young bigs today.

30. - Washington Wizards - Lazar Hayward (Marquette), Small Forward (6-6, 225) - Most mock draft had Hayward going mid-to-late second round, but Minnesota likes his offensive upside and was willing to work a deal to get him.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

Albert Pujols to be This Year's Home Run Champ Says Online Sportsbook

Barry Bonds is a 50-1 long shot to be this year's home run champ odds.  The favorite to be this year's home run champ is none other than Albert Pujols, however.

Now that Barry Bonds is signed and in Giants camp, it is on to his pursuit of all of sports most prestigious records: the all-time home run mark. Bonds sits just 21 homers shy of tying Hank Aaron for the career mark at 755. Word out of Giants’ camp is that Bonds is the healthiest he has been in a few years. Bonds is just two seasons removed from his injury riddled 2005 campaign where he played in only 14 games and hit only 5 home runs. He did come back last year and had a solid season hitting .270 with 26 bombs. All eyes will be on Bonds this spring and summer not only because of his home run chase but his highly publicized steroid abuse allegations. If and when Bonds breaks the record, he surely will not get the positive attention one should for breaking a record that was once thought of as “unbreakable”. Despite Bonds decent season last year, he is just 50-1 at MySportsbook.com to lead the MLB in long balls this season.

Not surprisingly, the favorites to go deep the most times this season are Albert Pujols 5-1, Ryan Howard 6-1, David Ortiz 8-1 and Alex Rodriguez 12-1. With 49 homers, Pujols finished second in the National League behind Howard (58). Pujols is considered the favorite due to the consistent power numbers that he has posted since breaking into the league in 2001. Also one must consider the fact that he played in 16 fewer games then Howard did due to an injury. Howard smashed 58 homers in his first complete season of big league play en route to the National League MVP odds award. He silenced his critics by successfully hitting left-handed pitching. Howard also displayed the ability to use his power to the opposite field. Two attributes which should keep Howard amongst the league leaders in long balls for years to come. From the American League representatives, David Ortiz leads the field. Ortiz was second in the majors last year with 54 home runs. Except for 1999 when he only played in 10 games, Ortiz has improved on his home run numbers each year he has been in the majors (1997).

Be sure to log onto online sports betting site MySportsbook.com to check out the odds for who will lead the MLB in home runs this season. Below is just a sample of the players listed. With the highest credit card rates in the industry, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on baseball this summer.

World Series odds

Adam Dunn 15-1

Albert Pujols 5-1

Alex Rodriguez 12-1

Alfonso Soriano 15-1

Andruw Jones 25-1

Barry Bonds 50-1

Carlos Delgado 40-1

David Ortiz 8-1

Jermaine Dye 40-1

Ken Griffey Jr. 100-1

Lance Berkman 40-1

Manny Ramirez 20-1

Richie Sexson 40-1

Ryan Howard 6-1

Travis Hafner 20-1

Vladimir Guerrero 40-1

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.