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06/11/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kurt Busch edged Jamie McMurray in Friday's qualifying to take the pole position for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
Qualifying was delayed briefly due to a shower that moved over two-mile track earlier in the day. The inclement weather halted the last final 15 minutes of Sprint Cup Series practice and canceled the final practice for the Camping World Truck Series, which runs at Michigan on Saturday.
Busch, a two-time race winner at Michigan, turned a lap of 189.984 m.p.h. for his second pole of the season and the 12th of his Sprint Cup Series career. He won here in June 2003 and August 2007.
"The car felt comfortable in that one lap, and we were just looking at weather and looking at tomorrow and thinking we needed to stay in race trim more today, and after that one [qualifying] run, I thought, let's just tweak a few things,' and with the rain and qualifying getting back under way, I saw McMurray running in 37 [seconds], and I said, oh, the track is fast," Busch said.
Juan Pablo Montoya was quickest in today's lone practice, followed by Jimmie Johnson and Busch.
"We freed up the car just a little bit to make sure we weren't on the tight side, and that paid perfect dividends for us," Busch added.
McMurray will start on the front row at Michigan for the first time in 15 races here after qualifying 0.04 seconds behind Busch.
Johnson, the four-time defending series champion, will start third, followed by Kasey Kahne and Jeff Burton.
"It was a great lap there, but I'm not really sure how I could have gotten much faster there," Johnson said. "This [car] was awesome today. I'm very excited for this race. We've had the last two get away from us on fuel, and I hope this doesn't become a fuel-mileage race, because we can handle well and race for it."
Both races at Michigan in 2009 came down to a fuel-mileage battle, with Mark Martin winning the June race and Brian Vickers taking the August event. Jimmie Johnson held the lead in the closing laps but ran out of fuel in each of those two races at Michigan.
Jeff Gordon qualified sixth, while Denny Hamlin, last weekend's winner at Pocono, took the seventh spot. Ryan Newman, David Reutimann and Juan Pablo Montoya completed the top-10.
Points leader Kevin Harvick will start 31st. Harvick currently holds a 19- point advantage over Kyle Busch, who will roll off 15th.
Dave Blaney, Michael Waltrip and Johnny Sauter failed to qualify.
Sunday's 400-mile race at Michigan is scheduled to start just after 1:00 p.m. (et).
<< Penguins' Orpik has successful surgery
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Brooks
Orpik underwent successful sports hernia surgery Friday, the club announced.
The procedure was performed in Boston by Dr. David Berger.
General manager Ray Sh
<< Boise State joins Mountain West Conference
Colorado Springs, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Mountain West Conference announced
Friday that Boise State has accepted an invitation to join the conference
beginning July 1, 2011.
Boise State moves on from the Western Athletic Conference a
<< Penguins' Orpik operated on for sports hernia
PITTSBURGH (AP) -Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman Brooks Orpik has undergone surgery to repair a sports hernia and will require a month to six weeks of rehabilitation.A sports hernia occurs when there is a weakening of the muscles or tendon in the low
<< AP source: Hawks set to hire Larry Drew as coach
ATLANTA (AP) -A person familiar with the situation says that the Atlanta Hawks are poised to hire Larry Drew as their next head coach.The person spoke to The Associated press on condition of anonymity because the team is still working out details of
Cowboys WR Austin signs tender >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin
has reportedly signed his $3.168 million tender for next season.
The Dallas Morning News is reporting the signing of Austin, who set career
highs with 81 rec
Giants sign S Chad Jones >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants have signed
safety Chad Jones, their third round selection in the 2010 NFL Draft.
The 6-foot-3, 218-pound Jones played in 40 games over three seasons at LSU,
starting 19 t
Report: Hawks pick Drew as new head coach >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Hawks have reportedly hired Larry
Drew to be the team's next head coach.
Drew, who has been Atlanta's lead assistant for the past six years, will take
the place of Mike Woodson, according to The
GB&I leads after first day of Curtis Cup >>
Manchester, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Great Britain & Ireland won two of the three
afternoon four-ball matches Friday to take a 3 1/2 - 2 1/2 lead over the
United States after the first day of the Curtis Cup.
After the teams halved a
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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