Oswalt toes the hill for Astros against Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

07/24/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran right-hander Rot Oswalt makes what could be one of the last starts of his Houston career tonight when the Astros meet the Cincinnati Reds in the middle test of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

Oswalt, a Houston fixture since the Astros picked him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft, has been the subject of rampant trade rumors in recent days, with reported suitors including the St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers.

The two-time 20-game winner and eight-time double-digit winner has slumped to just six wins in 17 decisions with a subpar Houston team this season, but is said to be close to the form that earned him 17 victories as recently as 2008.

He's consistently shown that form in a remarkable career against the Reds, winning 23 times in 25 decisions, while posting a 2.62 earned run average against Cincinnati across 213 innings.

The Reds did hand him a tough-luck loss in their last get-together, touching him for eight hits and three runs in seven innings while winning a 4-2 verdict on April 29 in Cincinnati.

Oswalt is 4-8 in 14 starts since, including a 9-0 loss at Pittsburgh on July 18. His last win came against the Pirates in Houston on July 8, in the form of a one-hitter with eight strikeouts in the Astros' 2-0 triumph.

He is 2-8 in 11 starts this season at Minute Maid Park.

For the Reds, third-year Dominican Johnny Cueto aims for his 10th win in just his 20th start of 2010. The 24-year-old righty was a nine-game winner in 31 starts as a rookie in 2008, then won 11 times in 30 starts last season.

He got to nine wins this season in his last start on July 19, allowing four hits and two runs in six innings of a 7-2 defeat of Washington.

In seven career games against the Astros, however, Cueto is 0-4 with a 5.22 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. Conversely, he's 4-1 on the road this year in 10 outings.

On Friday, Jay Bruce doubled in the go-ahead run in the eighth inning to lift the Reds to a 6-4 win.

Joey Votto was 3-for-4 with a home run, walked and scored one of his two runs on Bruce's double. Ryan Hanigan had a two-run single and Bruce ended with two RBI as the Reds bounced back from dropping the final two games of a four-game set with Washington.

Francisco Cordero put the tying run on base in the ninth but stranded a pair by getting Hunter Pence to line out to center to end the game and earn his 27th save. Logan Ondrusek (1-0) picked up his first major-league win for tossing a scoreless inning of relief.

Pence was 4-for-5, hit a game-tying two-run homer in the sixth, scored twice and drove in three for Houston, which was coming off a 3-3 road trip.

Tim Byrdak (1-1) had gone 19 appearances without allowing a run but took the loss after surrendering two on three hits without recording an out.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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